On November 5th Americans will go to the polls to elect their next president. The contest will feel familiar: the two main candidates are the same as in 2020. Joe Biden, the incumbent, faced no viable competition for the Democratic nomination. His predecessor in office, Donald Trump, easily saw off a crowded field in the Republican primary.
Both men are widely disliked. Mr Biden’s presidency has been defined by high inflation, big industrial-policy bills, and turmoil abroad. Mr Trump’s supporters tried to overturn his election loss in 2020; he faces federal charges over his alleged participation in that scheme and has been convicted of a felony relating to his 2016 presidential campaign. The election will be less a popularity contest than a referendum on which man Americans think is the least bad option. Our election forecast shows the chances each man has of winning a second term in office.
Here you can find the latest polls. Explore how a hypothetical voter might cast a ballot with our interactive build-a-voter model. And if you are interested in contests elsewhere, see our British election tracker and more at our election tracker hub.
in-brief:
Voting intention, %
Key dates
The election is still many months away, but with the two candidates now in effect decided, the campaign can begin in earnest.
Jun 27th
First presidential debate
Joe Biden and Donald Trump agreed to meet for the first of two debates, sidestepping the commission that normally arranges three. Normally, the candidates hash out important issues (or at least trade insults) for 90 minutes.
Jul 15th
Republican National Convention
Typically a four-day pageant for the party’s chosen nominee, the party will formally select a presidential and vice-presidential candidate in Milwaukee.
Aug 19th
Democratic National Convention
Similar to the Republican convention a month earlier, the Democrats will formally nominate Mr Biden as their presidential candidate in Chicago.
Sep 10th
Second presidential debate
The two main candidates will meet again a week after Labor Day (traditionally when Americans begin to pay attention to the election). Holding the debates so long before most people vote will no doubt lessen their impact on the race.
Nov 5th
Election day
Polls open on a Tuesday in early November, though early voting and mail-in ballot initiatives will mean many Americans will have already voted. Counting ballots will go on for weeks in some states.
Jan 6th 2025
Results certification
Once all votes are counted, the results must be certified by Congress. Normally a pro-forma event, in 2021 Mr Trump’s supporters stormed the Capitol building to stop the certification. He is on trial for his alleged role in the attack.
Jan 20th 2025
Inauguration
The new (well, newly re-elected) president will be sworn into office for his second term on the steps of the Capitol building in Washington, DC.
The candidates
Joe Biden
President
Joe Biden, at 81, will be the oldest ever major-party presidential candidate, breaking his own record set in 2020. Mr Biden won a seat in the Senate at the age of 30 and held it for over three decades. He made failed bids for president in 1988 and 2008, and served as Barack Obama’s vice-president. Despite a reputation as a centrist Democrat, in office he has pushed to expand the state and lobbied for unions. He has also led an international coalition to support Ukraine against Russia’s invasion. Although he promises to “finish the job” if re-elected, many voters think the job may finish him.
Donald Trump
Former president
Donald Trump’s extraordinary campaign follows his no less remarkable term as America’s 45th president, which concluded shortly after his supporters staged an armed attack on the Capitol. His alleged role in instigating the attack and a broader effort to overturn results of the 2020 election resulted in two criminal indictments, in federal court and Georgia state court. He faces two others, totalling 91 felony charges. The 78-year-old denies all wrongdoing. Mr Trump is a self-proclaimed billionaire, who made (and lost) much of his money in real estate, before he became a reality-TV star. This time his campaign pairs familiar culture-war issues (building a border wall, “left-wing gender insanity”) with fresh grievances (against the lawyers prosecuting his cases and the judges overseeing them).
Legal requirements for presidential candidates have remained the same since the year Washington accepted the presidency. As directed by the Constitution, a presidential candidate must be a natural born citizen of the United States, a resident for 14 years, and 35 years of age or older.
Areas considered battlegrounds in the 2020 election were Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Maine's 2nd congressional district, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin, with Florida, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and ...
Since 1988, Wisconsin has leaned towards the Democratic Party in presidential elections, although Republican Donald Trump won the state by a margin of 0.77 percentage points.
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes. in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election. Biden wins 49 times out of 100. There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.
Ford succeeded to the presidency when Nixon resigned in 1974, but was defeated for election to a full term in 1976. Ford is the only person to serve as president without winning an election for president or vice president.
The median age at inauguration of incoming U.S. presidents is 55 years. The youngest person to become U.S. president was Theodore Roosevelt, who, at age 42, succeeded to the office after the assassination of William McKinley. The oldest person inaugurated president was Joe Biden, at age 78.
A purple state refers to a swing state where both Democratic and Republican candidates receive many votes without an overwhelming majority for either party. Purple states are also often referred to as "battleground" states.
Colorado gained statehood in August 1876. After voting primarily Republican from 1920-2004, the state has voted with the Democrats in the last four presidential elections, including Joe Biden's 13.5% margin in 2020.
Wyoming is the most Republican state in the U.S. Wyoming has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of +25. Wyoming's strong Conservative lean is attributed to its large rural, white, and Evangelical populations. Wyoming has voted Republican in every Presidential election since 1952, except for the 1964 election.
However, that changed in 1980, and Texas has sided with the Republicans ever since. Having a Bush on the ticket each election from 1980 through 2004 (except 1996) helped make Texas a reliably “red” state. In 2020, Donald Trump won the state by 6.5% over Joe Biden, the narrowest margin since 1996.
Since 1992 it has supported the Democrats by moderate margins, except for a narrow win by Donald Trump in 2016, which was the closest election in the state's history. In 2020, Joe Biden won it back by 2.8 points. Michigan was the home of Gerald Ford, the 38th president of the United States.
While living and working in the White House, the president performs many roles. These include the following eight: Chief of State, Chief Executive, Chief Administrator, Chief Diplomat, Commander-in-Chief, Chief Legislator, Chief of Party, and Chief Citizen.
The president be a native-born U.S. citizen; be at least 35 years of age; and have been a resident of the United States for at least 14 years. Until 2008, all had been white men. Most have been Christian.
Introduction: My name is Neely Ledner, I am a bright, determined, beautiful, adventurous, adventurous, spotless, calm person who loves writing and wants to share my knowledge and understanding with you.
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